I believe the developed world has the potential knowledge and power to prevent a large scale religious war in the Middle East which threatens to involve numerous superpowers. For the sake of all civilization, we must force a peaceful resolution. There is a hope that our technology has enabled us to predict and even prevent global disasters. Sadly, I have the impression that there are people and groups in power who are rather intent upon war, regardless of predictions. Or they are at least not supporting a peaceful resolution. Their very refusal to step down or change their strategy is in fact the problem.

Perhaps they don’t realize that most developed economies, including the United States, Europe and Japan are in dis-integrative secular cycles. Any global fighting will only accelerate the descent into local unrest and civil dissidence in the developed economies. It is important to remember that World World II began around ten years after the start of the Great Depression. The current global depression, yes depression (not recession), occurred about seven years ago. History does progress in cycles, not necessarily at periodic intervals, but the highest probability of global war is in the years following a global depression. Martin Armstrong has mentioned that November 20, 2014 was a critical date in his war cycle and that 2015 and 2016 are going to be volatile years.

Looking at The Bubble Index (10,080 and 20,160 days), shows that the DJIA and S&P 500 are both still in large scale decompression phases which started in 2008-9. Similar decompression phases in The Bubble Index occurred in the late 1960’s and lasted through the 1970’s. This marked a time of great civil unrest. And if you are an Elliott Wave follower, Daneric’s blog suggests the recent bull market is a “sucker’s rally” B wave off the 2009 lows, and that a C wave is about to unfold in the Wilshire 5000 (although there are other EW blogs, such as Caldaro, which predict different outcomes). If these predictions come true we are looking at a future in the next few years of political unrest and economic volatility. Only time will tell…