anautonomousagent – Page 45 – An Autonomous Agent

Stuart Kauffman Videos

On February 27, 2013

In anthropology, biology, complexity theory, dna, evolution, preadaptation, reductionism, science, stuart Kauffman, video, youtube

Stuart Kauffman provides many insights into nature, evolution, and other subjects in the following videos:

YouTube Playlist

Stuart Kauffman – Beyond Belief 2007

The Re-Enchantment of Humanity: Dr. Stuart Kauffman

Stuart Kauffman on Beyond Reductionism

Reinventing the Sacred with Stuart Kauffman part1

Stuart Kauffman: Yuk ‘n’ Yum

Stuart Kauffman Returns to Gund 1/2

Stuart Kauffman – Mind in the Poised Realm

Biologist and complexity theorist Stuart Kauffman on preadaptations in evolution

Earth From Space – NOVA

By anautonomousagent

On February 16, 2013

In anthropocene, anthropology, documentary, earth, earth from space, education, nova, science, space, video, website, youtube

Well done NOVA. Earth From Space, a NOVA documentary detailing the information revealed about Earth through satellites, is a must see. The visual images of the atmospheric processes and natural phenomenon are the best I have seen and really show the inter-connectedness of the environmental processes on Earth. Follow this link to watch it on YouTube.
Download the HD version here or buy it here.

A Walk Through Time

By anautonomousagent

On February 15, 2013

In consciousness, thoughts, universe

Imagine you are a being who can travel along the dimension of time and watch as space progresses; just as we humans walk through the dimension of space and watch as time progresses. You would be interested in exploring time as much as you can, just as we explore space as much as we can. We have discovered quarks and other particles which compose of the structures of our space dimension; we have seen the furthest galaxies and the existence of the big bang. What would you discover as you moved about in time?

Just as humans calculate innumerable statistics about their space universe as it progresses through time, you could calculate innumerable statistics about the time universe as it progresses through space. Life on other worlds would be abundant; yet, perhaps not likely to travel space as we imagine in sci-fi movies. You, this time dimension being, could simulate 1,000,000,000+ space universes. Then, observing these space universes you could calculate statistics based on the outcomes. Life on planets would be statistically observable through all time in a single space universe. You may discover that all life arising in a space universe follows statistical patterns, much as we have discovered that stars follow patterns throughout their life. It may be that life goes through certain stages on all planets, just as all stars are born in a nebulous cloud and eventually die. As that star progresses through its life, various initial parameters effect its size, temperature, type of a death, etc. Now, as life progress on all these planets, various initial parameters also influence observable outcomes.

The Life of a Star – Understood Through Statistics

So, perhaps humans exist at a time in our planet’s history similar to the main sequence stage of stellar development. The first stage was the birth and development of primitive cellular automaton. Then came creatures with greater spatial abilities, such as the dinosaurs. Then, intelligent species develop, capable of perceiving the concept I am currently writing about. This hypothesis would seem to be supported by humans, dolphins, and other mammals who are perhaps more intelligent than all previously existing species which have existed. Humans just happened to reach a higher level first. As these intelligent species grow in their capacity to alter their survival and comprehend their surroundings, another stage begins. What this next stage entails and the prediction of its outcomes is beyond human genetic capacity.

The point is this: being able to move about in the time dimension, it is possible to think about and understand our space universe in a different perspective.

Inherited Consciousness?

By anautonomousagent

On February 15, 2013

In consciousness, Douglas Hofstadter, edward wilson, philosophy, thoughts, universe

After reading Edward O. Wilson‘s On Human Nature, several opinions and ideas formed; I think the spiritual and universal awareness/wisdom of humans follows a distribution function (perhaps Gaussian). In other words all humans are not born with the same potential to be aware of deeper concepts and principles. Some individuals are not able to comprehend universal ideas and principles of life; while others are deeply in tune with the essence of the universe. This awareness would seem to be genetic. I say that because there have been people in all cultures throughout history who have possessed such spiritual and universal wisdom. Also, no amount of cultural teaching will allow one to obtain such wisdom. We are simply born with a high potential or low potential and this expresses itself naturally.

Thus, there is not an object equally inherited by all humans which we could call a “soul” or consciousness. Individual humans are conscious or aware of the universe in varying degrees. This is related to the origin of consciousness. Was there an Adam, i.e. a first human who was conscious? Have organisms always been conscious to a certain degree, depending on various factors? Could we consider the universe itself conscious? Interesting ideas. I would suggest reading Douglas Hofstadter‘s book about strange loops and other books on consciousness here.

Complex System vs. Stochastic Models of Market Returns

By anautonomousagent

On February 14, 2013

In anders johanson, complexity theory, didier sornette, dragon-king, economics, finance, investing, phase transitions, stocks, thoughts

Modelling market returns as independent random variables/martingales is the same as modelling the solar system as a geocentric system with the planets and Sun circling around Earth in epicycles. Predictions of the future are often vastly incorrect in both models. Quite surprisingly, this solar system model survived for thousands of years, despite it being totally incorrect. Then came Tycho Brahe who introduced a modified version of this Ptolemaic system. In Brahe’s model the planets orbit the Sun which orbits the Earth. While this model improved the accuracy of planetary motions, it failed to model reality. Perhaps it could be said that stochastic jump processes are equivalent to Brahe’s model of the solar system. While these jump process do a better job at modelling the returns than simple stochastic processes, they fail to grasp the underlying true model of returns.

Poor Market Forecasting

And as we now know, the true model (for now) of the solar system was introduced by Aristarchus (Copernicus and Kepler helped bring forward this model) and predicts planetary motions with near perfection and represents the actual state of the solar system. I believe that the analogous model for stock returns has been introduced by Didier Sornette, Anders Johanson and others.

These scientists have expounded the idea that market returns are a function of individual agents in a complex system. Just as the human body is a collection of individual cells which make “decisions” based on communications with neighbours through chemical processes, traders make their own decisions based on communication with neighbours. With this perspective the market is a complex system of interacting agents. Thus, returns should be a function of these interactions. Under this complex system model, bubbles and crashes which dot the history of finance (which are not explained fully by independent returns/martingales) are straightforward results. In addition, these models still explain why returns are close to normal “most” of the time.

So, it seems that we need to modify or throw away the old models in favour of these new complex system models. These complex models offer better prediction of the overall market and more fully represent reality.

There is the interesting possibility of this: the stochastic volatility model referred to as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process represents the physical process of a “noisy relaxation process.” The Wiener Process represents Brownian motion or motion of a particle through a gas or liquid. So, if we consider the movement of a stock through a virtual container of many stocks (these stocks are the atoms in the Brownian motion) then we need to ask ourselves: What does the price, interest rate, returns, etc. mimic? It is NOT the equations! BUT the physical processes themselves. Why is an interest rate in a state of disequilibrium in the first place… that it must try to relax? Who put the stock in swarm of human hands all independently moving… It more correctly seems that the traders are following its movement at every second, waiting to grab it when the time if right (thus not independent)?