An Autonomous Agent

exploring the noosphere

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Digital Currency, Bitcoin and “Money-over-IP” – Jeremy Allaire and John Beccia

I recently attended a presentation on Digital Currency, Bitcoin and “Money-over-IP” by Jeremy Allaire and John Beccia. The audience was general and the details light, but my general impression is that the future lies in digital currencies. Really amazing ideas can be spawned and generated through this new area of technology.

The Elliott Wave Principle

 

In the financial industry many models are based on Geometric Brownian Motion. However, these models tend to be inadequate and breakdown when the assumptions are violated. Searching for better stochastic models to model the market, I recently ran across an interesting topic in the field of market prediction and structure — the ideas of Ralph Nelson Elliott. It is remarkable that his ideas of market waves and structure were formulated in the 1930’s.  His ideas were popularized by Robert Prechter who has numerous books and articles written on the subject. In this post I have introduced these ideas and will post all the articles and books I have and will read on this subject. I hope to develop these ideas further.

 

Books:

Harmonic Elliott Wave: The Case for Modification of R. N. Elliott’s Impulsive Wave Structure – Ian Copsey

Mastering Elliott Wave Principle: Elementary Concepts, Wave Patterns, and Practice Exercises – Constance Brown

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior

The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics

Articles:

An Introduction to the Elliott Wave Principle – Jordan Kotick

Multi-classifier based on Elliott wave’s recognition

Fuzzy time-series based on Fibonacci sequence for stock price forecasting

Elliott Wave Theory and neuro-fuzzy systems, in stock market prediction: The WASP system

Unconscious Herding Behavior as the Psychological Basis of Financial Market Trends and Patterns

Videos:

Mastering Elliott Wave – Jamie Saettele

Thoughts Based on the Essays of Stephen Jay Gould

After reading Stephen Jay Gould’s book of essays, Bully for Brontosaurus, two titles really stuck in my mind. Although I enjoyed every one of the thirty five essays, the ones titled “Kropotkin Was No Crackpot” and “Justice Scalia’s Misunderstanding” were most provoking to my understanding of biology and science.
In “Kropotkin Was No Crackpot” Gould explains the influence on Charles Darwin’s Theory of Natural Selection by several import philosophical and economic thinkers in England. This people included Adam Smith and Thomas Malthus, who wrote about the importance of the individual and competition for survival and success. Darwin saw these forces of competition directly in action while visiting the tropical parts of the world. In such places, the environment is extremely hospitable to life and natural selection occurs largely through competition. Even though Darwin explained that natural selection also involves cooperation between organisms, he never experienced the importance of cooperation in environments such as Siberia — where natural selection largely occurs through environmental survival ability.
Petr Kropotkin witnessed first hand the reliance on cooperation, or “mutual aid” as he calls it, in the frozen Siberian environment. Natural selection, he says, forces the organism to cooperate with his neighbors and relatives in order to survive such harsh environments. Organisms which work together to survive will be much more successful than organisms which compete with each other for individual success. In many ways, I feel that the entire ecosystem of Earth is such a cooperative network of organisms; working together to live on a rocky marble in the vacuum of space.
Gould provides a nicely written account of these ideas and displays how science can forget and ignore certain aspects of nature which do not agree or support widely held political or social beliefs. People in western societies tend to be so concerned with dog-eat-dog and every-man-for-him-self ideologies that they forget that some institutions exist as cooperatives, such as various churches, corporations, and higher education. Not to mention the fact that our body consists of all types of symbiotic organisms. For potential ideas on the subject of institutional cooperation see Greenleaf’s book, Servant Leadership.
Gould’s essay, “Justice Scalia’s Misunderstanding” made me realize that I sometimes forget what science really tries to do. Basically, Justice Scalia mistakenly views science as a sort of ideology; which attempts, as its goal, to explain the source of the universe and life. Instead, as Gould points out through the historical example of James Hutton, science provides hypotheses which attempt to explain empirical observations. It is quite obvious that no direct observations exists from the time of the automaton’s origin on Earth or the even the universe’s origin. All we can do is make inferences about the past based on indirect evidence. Any speculation on “who” or “what” created the universe is outside the realm of science — rather it is simply speculation. With regards to the question of how did life arise on Earth, science can provide various hypotheses of all kinds. But they are opinions and hypotheses until direct evidence can be found in favor of one or disproving another.
Justice Scalia believed religious opinions were equivalent with scientific hypotheses; an incorrect belief. I jot my ideas down when I have time and many of them deal with speculations on who, how and why the universe exists. Sadly, these are not scientific questions of any kind – rather, they are speculations which are most likely far from the truth. I do believe that these speculations can be shaped and formed into scientific hypotheses. For example, my post about future organisms on Earth incorporating human made materials such as plastic in their bodies can be rephrased from a speculation to a scientific hypothesis. All that is needed is a question to answer. Perhaps this question is: do there exist organisms which have changed their genetic structure in such a way to make use of a new material present in their environment? The is answer to that is obviously YES! All oxygen breathing organisms did so millions of years ago. Then I must ask, what does it take to make this change and how can we do it today?

Code: The Hidden Language of Computer Hardware and Software – Charles Petzold

I recently entered a computer science reading frenzy and have a few books in this category which I wish to read. Code, by Charles Petzold provides a readable, accessible, and concise account of the fundamental concepts supporting the hardware and software enabling you to read this post. So important are these concepts to our daily lives, I think that this book should be required reading in all high schools.

HED Capital Management and Parallax Financial Research

There are two sites which deliver similar analysis, when compared to The Bubble Index™, of financial markets and indices.

These two sites are:

And here are two videos associated with these sites:

HED Captial Management Video on Vimeo
Parallax Financial Research Video on Vimeo

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